Trump Pauses Project Freedom Amid “Great Progress” Towards ‘Complete & Final’ Agreement With Iran

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 05:00 AM

Summary

• Trump announce ‘pause’ to Project Freedom amid optimism of a “complete and final” deal with Iran; French ship confirmed hit in cruise missile attack, crew members injured
• Rubio declares ‘offensive’ actions of Operation Epic Fury are over, and now Project Freedom is in swing. Another vessel comes under attack in Hormuz.
• UAE under attack again, confirmed in state sources – however which Iran denies doing – instead saying its actions were directed at the United States. White House still hasn’t declared end of ceasefire.
• Pentagon addresses whether ceasefire over or violated: Caine says Iran’s Monday operations were “all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.“
• Contradictory statements out of Tehran on UAE attack, amid reports of division between IRGC & civilian leaders.
• Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to Beijing to discuss crisis with Chinese counterpart.

The odds of a peace deal being completed just jumped…

https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026&buttons=false&height=300

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Trump Pauses Project Freedom

There is a knee-jerk wave of optimism across assets with WTI crude futures lower, US equity contracts and Treasury futures higher after President Trump said Project Freedom will be paused.

Trump also said there is progress toward a final agreement with Iran which is what investors really want to see as it could potentially mean a reopening of Hormuz. 

Trump statement on his TruthSocial feed (emphasis and spacing ours):

Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally…

…the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran…

…we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. 

WTI crude futures are testing back below $100…

Polymarket odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has jumped to better than a coin-flip…

https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june&buttons=false&height=300

Don’t hold your breath though as there have been several false starts of this kind before, and traders will soon lose faith unless there are more details from the Iranian side.

Additionally late Tuesday, a French cargo ship was confirmed hit in a missile attack, injuring crew members:

A cargo ship in the Gulf region was hit by a possible land-attack cruise missile, causing several injuries among the ship’s Filipino crew, two U.S. officials told CBS News.

The hit on the CGM San Antonio — which is owned by a French firm — took place late Tuesday evening local time, the officials said. The ship was near Dubai as of midday on Tuesday, but it is not clear whether the vessel has moved since then, according to public ship tracking data.

Rubio Declares Conflict in New Stage

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced Tuesday afternoon that offensive stage of Iran war is ‘over’. He further said that ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz are facing a humanitarian crisis and accused Iran of holding the world hostage by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is denying that it attacked the United Arab Emirates, with the foreign ministry saying its ‘defensive actions’ were ‘exclusively directed at the U.S.’

Operation Epic Fury is over, now Project Freedom.

The remarks were issued just as a new attack is unfolding on a foreign cargo ship in the strategic waterway:

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Reaction in oil…

…as the goalposts keep shifting:

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Trump Asked Whether Ceasefire is Dead

A revealing exchange in the Oval Office strongly suggests that even amid a second Iranian attack wave on the UAE Tuesday, the White House is unwilling to say that the ceasefire has collapsed – also given there’s yet been no direct exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces: 

President Trump, taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, would not specify what Iran would need to do to violate the cease-fire. Asked by a reporter what would constitute a violation, considering that the country has fired on U.S. ships several times, Trump said: “Well, you’ll find out, because I’ll let you know.”

He added that “they know what to do,” and “they know what not to do, more importantly.”

Earlier the Pentagon clearly indicated that the ceasefire is still active, from Washington’s point of view. 

The Iranian government is meanwhile trying to bat down rumors of a division between the presidency and the IRGC/military apparatus.

Second UAE Attack Wave Active

The country’s Ministry of Defense has just released official statement of inbound projectiles out of Iran:

• The UAE’s air defenses are currently dealing with missile and drone attacks originating from Iran.
• The Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE’s air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
• UAE Air Defences system are actively engaging with missiles and UAV threats MOD asserts that the sounds heard across the country are the result of ongoing engaging operations of missiles and UAV’s

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There are meanwhile reports of explosions being heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island, and questions raised about scenes like the following:

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Is Ceasefire Over? Pentagon Answers Definitively 

In the Tuesday morning Pentagon presser led by War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine stated very clearly that the US views Monday’s escalation (the attack on UAE and some vessels in the Strait of Hormuz) as actions which are “all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.“

The Trump administration has argued that it doesn’t have to seek congressional approval to continue military operations beyond a 60-day limit because there is a ceasefire in effect. But the question raised Monday is: does the fresh Iranian cross-Gulf mark the end of ceasefire? Clearly the Pentagon and Trump administration are saying no. “No adversary should mistake our current restraint for a lack of resolve,” Caine then emphasized.

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Below are some of the latest top developments from various MSM sources:

—Trump’s desire to end the Iran war is being put to the test after Tehran fired at American warships on Monday and violently disrupted a U.S. effort to revive shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Trump wants to avoid a fresh bombing campaign, officials say, preferring a negotiated end to Tehran’s nuclear advancements and the weekslong war that has raised gas prices and hurt the global economy. (WSJ)

—U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year. The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran’s nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran’s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium. (RTRS)

—Trump says war could stretch 3 more weeks, claims US ‘already won.’ (ABC)

Below: Pentagon slide in Tuesday’s briefing showing Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping: “Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships since the ceasefire was announced” (Gen. Caine).

And this puts things in perspective…

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Internal Iranian Schism Over Monday UAE Attacks(?)

There’s a lot of chatter that Iran’s civilian government and the IRGC are at direct odds over Monday’s attack on UAE, which resulted in a large blaze at the Fujairah oil facility and the three injured Indian nationals. Al Jazeera for example observes:

By targeting the facility, Iran is sending a direct message to UAE saying: “We can target your most important economic points even if you think you can get around the Strait of Hormuz,” said Turak.

Iran’s government has not confirmed or denied responsibility for the attack. Turak noted there are “quite contradictory” statements coming out of Iran, however.

And Saudi-funded Iran International claims the following dramatic schism and internal rupture over the risky cross-Gulf operation, which could signal the end of the ceasefire (though curiously President Trump himself has not said it is broken):

Exclusive information obtained by Iran International points to a growing clash between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and its military leadership over Monday’s escalation in the Persian Gulf and attacks on the United Arab Emirates.

According to sources familiar with Tehran’s deliberations, Pezeshkian has expressed strong anger at actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, led by Ahmad Vahidi, describing missile and drone strikes on the UAE as “completely irresponsible” and carried out without the government’s knowledge or coordination.

Pezeshkian is said to have described the IRGC’s approach to escalating tensions with regional countries as “madness,” warning of potentially irreversible consequences.

This certainly isn’t the first time that Iran International, a London-based publication seen as also ‘close’ to Israeli intelligence, has alleged severe internal division in Iran’s wartime decision-making, but the viewpoint is beginning to be echoed and reported on more broadly.

Two US Navy Destroyers Successfully Transit Strait

To review of Monday’s major escalation, US Central Command said its forces had intercepted missiles targeting US Navy and commercial vessels, and also said American helicopters sank six small Iranian boats that officials said were targeting civilian vessels under American protection.

And also came a big milestone in terms of Washington aims to enforce Trump’s newly announced Project Freedom plan to provide military escort for ships through Hormuz. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf on Monday and overnight after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials.

CBS reports, “The USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, faced a series of coordinated threats during the passage, the defense officials said. Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them in what officials described as a sustained barrage.” The report underscores further that “Despite the intensity of the attacks, neither U.S. vessel was struck.”

‘No Military Solution’

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has issued an interesting statement decrying Trump’s attempt at escalation in Hormuz, warning that there’s no “military solution” to the crisis, while warning the US, UAE, and other regional countries against being drawn into a “quagmire” in the region.

“Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis,” Araghchi wrote on X. “As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE. Project Freedom is Project Deadlock,” to top Iranian diplomat asserted.

Also of note is that Araghchi will travel to Beijing on Tuesday for discussions with his Chinese counterpart. “During the visit he will meet his Chinese counterpart [Wang Yi] to discuss bilateral ties and regional and international developments,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Below: Graham says you either pay now or you pay later. “They tried to get a nuclear weapon. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive.”

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Officially at least, Beijing has a policy of “noninterference” in other countries’ internal affairs, and has claimed to not be involved in the Iran conflict – while Washington has consistently accused China of providing intelligence to Tehran, and even possibly military hardware or weapons.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s presidential secretary Choi Soung-ah says “the safety of international maritime routes and freedom of navigation should be protected under international law” and that Seoul is “watching President Trump’s remark related to this,” according Reuters. This after ann explosion and fire on a South Korean-operated ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, which Trump blamed on an Iranian attack.

More Geopolitical Developments

via Newsquawk…

•  US President Trump said Iran war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.
• IRGC military source told Tasnim that the US shot two small boats carrying civilians instead of shooting IRGC speedboats.
• “Iranian Defense Council member Ali Akbar Ahmadian: Our security does not accept negotiations, and Washington obstructed global navigation and energy security”, Al Jazeera reported.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian has requested an immediate and emergency meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei to ask him to stop IRGC attacks on Persian Gulf nations and prevent a recurrence, Iran International reported.
• Pezeshkian reportedly outlined that the IRGC attack on the UAE occurred without the knowledge of the government.
• US intelligence suggests strikes from the start of the war led to limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, Reuters sources say.
• US State Department official to Al Jazeera said the President is clear that direct communication between Israel and Lebanon is the best path toward peace; We are working to prepare the necessary conditions and political momentum to move forward with this
• Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials who spoke to CBS News; “Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them”.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said its subsidiary’s US-flagged vehicle carrier, Alliance Fairfax, exited the Gulf via Strait of Hormuz on May 4th.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent had a “fierce row” with UK Chancellor Reeves last month over her outspoken criticism of the Iranian war, FT sources say.
• US CENTCOM posted “US warships and aircraft deployed to the Middle East are enforcing the naval blockade against Iran while executing Project Freedom to support the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz.”.
• US officials say military closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.
• US President Trump reiterates he feels Europe has been “very disappointing”.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted “As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.”.
• Full post:”Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis. As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”.
• Mehr News Agency said a fire broke out in two commercial ships and spread to two others in Dayyer port south of Iran; cause not clear.
• “Explosions were heard tonight in the port of Bandar Abbas (Iran) and on Qassem Island (Iran) in the Persian Gulf”, N12 journalist reported citing sources in Iran.
• IRGC political deputy said traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will only be done with Iran’s permission, ISNA reported; “Any kind of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, if it is from the enemy, will be met with a decisive and crushing response”.
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being solidified.
• Actions of the US and allies have threatened the security of shipping and energy.
• UNSC resolution prepared by the US, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait opens the door for potential enforcement measures, AsharqNews reported citing the resolution “to be distributed tomorrow”.