Trump ‘Favors’ Attacking Iran, Vance Pushing Back, As President Pezeshkian In Streets For Large Counter-Protests

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Jan 12, 2026 – 05:20 PM

Update(1820ET): There are reports of a significant internal Trump administration divide over Iran policy, with Vice President Vance said to be leading the charge for the non-interventionist camp, which much of MAGA might welcome while seeing in Vance the top contender for 2028:

President Trump currently leans toward authorizing fresh military strikes on Iran, U.S. officials say, as the White House is weighing a last-ditch Iranian offer to engage in diplomacy over curbing its nuclear program.

Some senior administration aides, led by Vice President JD Vance, are urging Trump to try diplomacy before retaliating against Iran for killing protesters. Trump hasn’t made a final decision on what he will do and will meet with senior aides Tuesday to determine his approach.

Some in the U.S. doubt that Iran is genuine about ending its nuclear program, telling Trump that Tehran may be finding a way to buy time and avoid American airstrikes. Aides have briefed Trump on the benefits and pitfalls of renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Trump currently favors attacking Iran, but could change his mind depending on unfolding developments. Some officials said Trump may strike first and then seek serious talks with Tehran. “We may have to act because of what is happening before the meeting,” he said Sunday.

But all of this might become moot, or else it could be said Trump will have an easy ‘out’ or offramp and not attack Iran, given the latest reports from inside the country show waning anti-govt protests. Instead, they’ve been supplanted by huge pro-government counter-demonstrations. “Millions” or at least hundreds of thousands have come out for these ‘loyalist’ demonstrations. And even the country’s President Masoud Pezeshkian was out confidently and defiantly strolling the streets Monday…

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One regional analyst and observer reacts to Monday’s developments, after a weekend security crackdown unleashed at least scores of casualties:

The Islamic Republic is sending two important signals here:

1. It retains control in large cities (or at least the ones/areas we’re getting footage from)

2. It can still countermobilize its base of support (and others forced to turn out) in large numbers. 

He concludes, “If this is it, these anti-regime protests may well fizzle out before long, although I’ve noted major ‘landmines’ ahead for the Islamic Republic in 2026.”

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Another hugely important development Monday, ultimately aimed at China…

And still “on the table”…

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Update(10:15ET): Iran’s Supreme Leader is really playing with fire here in posting the below image on X. While the message didn’t appear on his English language account, it is on his Persian account, and thus mainly directed at the Ayatollah’s own domestic population.

According to a machine translation, the message says: “That father figure who sits there with arrogance and pride, passing judgment on the entire world, he too should know that usually the tyrants and oppressors of the world, such as Pharaoh and Nimrod and Reza Khan and Mohammad Reza and the likes of them, when they were at the peak of their pride, were overthrown, This one too will be overthrown.”

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Khamenei perhaps suddenly feels more embolden to poke and mock Trump like this perhaps given the emerging widespread reports that the protests are losing steam, after weekend clashes with policy reportedly resulted in many deaths. There was definitely a major and deadly security crackdown, but this also as the government asserts that dozens of police and military have been attacked and killed, and buildings set on fire by ‘rioters’ and ‘saboteurs’.

There are also very large pro-government ‘counter protests’ taking over whole areas of cities Monday, including in the capital:

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The Trump administration was quite out front with saying it would “stand” with the Iranian people, and even protect them if they come under assault from government forces. This allowed Iranian leadership to tell people in the streets that they are doing the bidding of foreign powers like the US and Israel.

This also amid more tough talk from Iran’s parliament on Monday:

Iran’s parliament speaker has described the response to the protests as a fight with “terrorists” while addressing a large rally in the capital.

Iran is fighting a “four-front war”, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, listing economic, psychological and military engagement with the United States and Israel, and “today [is] a war against terrorists”.

“The great Iranian nation has never allowed the enemy to achieve its goals,” Ghalibaf said as supporters chanted, “Death to Israel, death to America.”

He pledged Iran’s military would teach Trump “an unforgettable lesson” in case of a new US attack, adding: “Come and see all your facilities in the region destroyed.”

Trump on Sunday did raise the question of direct help to the protesters (who may not actually be interested in Washington’s help). Trump said he will speak to Elon Musk about sending Starlink to protesters in Iran, following the government-imposed outage which has remained in place since Thursday.

“We may get the internet going if that’s possible,” the president told reporters. Elon “is very good at that kind of thing. I’m going to call him as soon as I’m finished with you.”

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Is the rhetoric between Washington in Tehran softening as it becomes clear the regime is not under threat by the protests?

Iran says it is “prepared for war” but ready to negotiate with the US based on “mutual respect and interests,” after US President Donald Trump said Tehran called to negotiate as his administration weighs possible military intervention during widespread anti-government protests.

* * *

The NY Times and others are confirming that President Trump has recently been briefed on a series of new military strike options targeting Iran as he weighs whether to act on his threat to attack the country over its crackdown on protesters, which have also clearly themselves engaged in violent acts in some locales at times.

In some of among the well over 100 cities or towns where protests have raged since the end of December, buildings and even mosques have been burned, cars torched, and police officials reportedly shot and stabbed. Amid an internet blackout across the country, which has made accurate information hard to come by and/or verirfy, there is a battle of narratives and ‘infowar’ happening. 

Starlink terminals were said to be smuggled into the country during the 2022 wave of protests, and so there has been some limited information and videos emerging even amid the several consecutive days of internet shutdown by the government.

President Trump during Friday’s meeting of oil executives again warned Iranian leadership not to kill protesters: “I’ve made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved,” he said. “We’ll be hitting them very hard where it hurts. And that doesn’t mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts.”

Trump later narrowed the warning, “I tell the Iranian leaders: You better not start shooting, because we’ll start shooting, too.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on top of that issued on X that “The United States supports the brave people of Iran” – something much vaguer and coupled with no specific threat.

From there, unverified reports throughout the weekend said that body bags from protest deaths were piling up. By last week, around 30 people were reported killed, including several or more among police and security officials. But by Sunday into Monday that figure ballooned.

Reuters and CNN have relied on a US-based group to claim, “More than 544 people have been killed over the past 15 days during anti-government demonstrations, including eight children, according to the Human Rights Activist New Agency (HRANA).”

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This new, high death count, is unverifiable but is still being widely circulated on Monday. It has been issued at a very sensitive and dangerous moment that the anti-Ayatollah opposition which largely lives in Europe and the United States is lobbying hard to get Trump’s ear and attention.

All the usual other enemies of Tehran are being very active in this regard too, such as the powerful Israel lobby in the United States.

On the ‘options’ briefings, the NY Times has described that briefings President Trump has already received included a variety of potential actions such as strikes against nonmilitary locations in Tehran.

When reporters asked about preparations for possible military action, the White House pointed instead to the president’s recent public statements and posts on social media. “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before,” Trump had additionally stated on Truth Social on Saturday. “The USA stands ready to help!!!”

If Trump were to actually kick off yet more US military action in the Middle East, this time against a large nation like Iran which would hold the serious potential for escalating into a full-blown conflict, it would likely prove deeply unpopular among his base. Broadly, the American public would likely not be on board.

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A Goldman Sachs note highlights that the build-up rhetoric threatening US intervention in and of itself will have an impact on oil, gold, and across markets:

Attention shifts to Iran as we speak. Unlike the 2022 protests centered around social liberties, this episode looks to be triggered by economic paralysis with inflation spiking and the sudden collapse of the Iranian rial in late Dec. The protests have now turned violent with death toll rising to the hundreds. What can potentially add oil to fire is if foreign interference continues to get talked up with the US signaling the threat of a potential intervention. Oil and Gold creeping up as the Iranian unrests unfold. This illustrates our view of the insurance value of commodities. We see a strong role for broader commodity length in strategic portfolio allocations with increasing geopolitical, trade and AI competition has led to more frequent use of commodity dominance as leverage.

Iranian businesses have in many cased been forced to suspend all activity because of Iran’s internet shutdown, especially those companies which are dealings or staff based abroad. The shutdown is said to be so severe that even the banking system isn’t operating, and something as simple as removing money from an ATM can’t be done.

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Leadership in Tehran might have made things much worse for itself with the decision to block internet access, given the protesting and rioting crowds hadn’t dispersed, but instead clashes with police may have grown more intense and violent. Iran’s foreign ministry has been cited in Bloomberg Monday as follows:

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says police and security forces brought protests “under control” from Saturday, according to statement to state TV. Araghchi: we have huge amount of evidence pointing direct Israeli and US interference in protests Says internet will be restored “soon after full control of security situation”

“Israel is directly responsible, and also Americans through their remarks by promoting violence,” Araghchi says.

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As for what’s next, President Donald Trump will be briefed on Tuesday on “some kinetic and many non-kinetic” options in Iran, according to a couple of unnamed administration officials to Politico. But there have indeed been signs that the protests have begun to abate or in some places been halted completely.