“A modest weakening of the economy would be good news as it should be more easing from the Fed. However, a sustained and sharp rise in unemployment rates would be a negative as it would raise concerns over growth and earnings,” he said.

In currencies, the dollar edged up modestly, rising 0.1% against the Japanese yen at 147.23, while the euro fell 0.1% to $1.1559. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, rallied 0.2% after a two-day decline.

Friday’s soft U.S. nonfarm payrolls data added to the case for a cut by the Fed, and took on another layer of drama with President Donald Trump‘s decision to fire the head of labor statistics responsible for the figures.

Odds for a September rate cut now stand at about 94%, according to CME Fedwatch, from a 63% chance seen on July 28. Market participants see at least two quarter-point cuts by the end of this year.

News that Trump would get to fill a governorship position at the Fed early also added to worries about politicization of interest rate policy.

Trump again threatened to raise tariffs on goods from India from the 25% level announced last month due to its Russian oil purchases, while New Delhi called his attack “unjustified” and vowed to protect its economic interests.

With concern mounting about the fragility of the underlying economy and the potential for oversupply, oil prices dropped for a fourth day, leaving Brent crude futures near two-week lows at $68.45 a barrel.

“Whether the threat of secondary sanctions on India’s financing of Russia is the core goal remains to be seen. Or indeed, this move may be increased U.S. leverage on India to open up its domestic economy to agricultural imports or commitments to buy U.S. energy instead,” strategists at ING said.

Second-quarter U.S. earnings season is winding down, but investors are still looking forward to reports this week from companies including Walt Disney (DIS.N), opens new tab and Caterpillar (CAT.N), opens new tab.

Tech heavyweights Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab, Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab and Meta (META.O), opens new tab surged overnight, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR.O), opens new tab raised its revenue forecast for the second time this year on expectations of sustained demand for its artificial intelligence services.

U.S. stock index futures , were up 0.2%, pointing to a modest rise at the start of trading.

Data from Asia’s two biggest economies showed resilience in their service sectors. In Japan, the S&P Global final services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) to 53.6 in July from 51.7 in June for the strongest expansion since February. China’s services activity last month at its fastest pace in more than a year.

Data releases later on Tuesday include final readings of business activity for July for the euro zone, Britain and the United States

Bitcoin , meanwhile, fell 0.6% to $114,235, while gold rose 0.1% to $3,375 an ounce.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-3-2025-08-05