In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +1%, Meta +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.03%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -1%).

• ACM Research (ACMR) gains 5% as the stock is to replace WK Kellogg Co. in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the opening of trading on Sept. 26.
• AutoZone (AZO) slips 2% after posting fourth-quarter results.
• Boeing (BA) is up 2% after Uzbekistan Airways announced an order for as many as 22 of the US planemaker’s 787 Dreamliner jets, while US Ambassador to China David Perdue said the US and China are weeks away from finalizing negotiations on a “huge” Boeing order.
• CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) climbs 2% after Melius Research upgraded the cloud-computing provider to buy, saying the firm is one of the beneficiaries “of accelerating cloud demand both right now and well into the future.”
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) falls 10% after the space and defense technology company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Kenvue (KVUE) gains 4% as President Donald Trump’s call for pregnant women to avoid Tylenol draws sharp criticism from researchers who say the advice ignores decades of evidence and could endanger mothers and babies.
• Vistra Corp. (VST) slips 2% after the power producer was downgraded at Jefferies, which voiced concerns about the lack of announcement for a data-center deal for its Comanche Peak nuclear-power plant.

In corporate news, Disney said Jimmy Kimmel Live! will return to the air on Tuesday following a backlash. Nvidia assured customers that its landmark deal with OpenAI won’t affect the chipmaker’s relationship with other clients. Zijin Gold International Co., which is currently taking orders to raise $3.2 billion in the world’s biggest initial public offering in months, may have to delay its trading debut in Hong Kong next week because of super typhoon Ragasa. China Vanke Co. is in talks with major domestic creditors to cut borrowing costs on private debt worth tens of billions of yuan, as the embattled developer seeks to ease liquidity stress, according to people familiar with the matter.

US stock futures wavered early on, repeating a pattern of the past two sessions that gave way to extended rallies. There was no pause for Gold however: the yellow metal’s unprecedented rally pushed higher on efforts by China to bolster its role in global bullion markets. Bullion powered beyond $3,780 an ounce, putting the metal on track for its best month since 2020. The rally gained fresh momentum on Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that the People’s Bank of China is looking to be a custodian of sovereign reserves, courting friendly countries to buy bullion and store it within its borders.

Investors are rushing to gold as the prospect of rapid US interest rate cuts enhances the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. The metal is also drawing haven demand amid geopolitical upheaval and pressure on the Federal Reserve from the Trump administration to lower rates, stocking fears about inflation.

Traders are awaiting fresh Fed signals ahead of a speech by Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday as earnings season looms as the next big test for stocks. Coming up as well is the first of three shorter-term debt auctions, beginning with a $69 billion sale of two-year notes.

“The cross-asset landscape is defined by the duality of tech-driven sentiment, embodied by Nvidia’s outsized role in AI, and policy scrutiny over Fed independence,” wrote Pepperstone research strategist Ahmad Assiri. “Equities continue to enjoy a positive tilt, the dollar struggles to find upside traction while gold has cemented itself as the market’s most compelling anchor.”

US stocks are holding gains from a $15 trillion rally since April’s lows, shaking off trade tensions and concerns about stretched valuations as traders bet a dovish Fed will fuel earnings amid excitement over artificial intelligence. The view was reinforced Monday as Nvidia pledged to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI, although this has sparked questions about the circular nature of funding in AI and making many wonder where the money will come from:

While AI companies have been quick to unveil plans for spending, they’ve been slower to show how they will pull in revenue to cover those expenses. Consulting firm Bain & Co. predicted that firms will need to find a combined $2 trillion to fund computing power by 2030, but their revenue is likely to fall $800 billion short of that.

“With the Fed turning dovish, the risk is that if you’re on the sidelines and the market moves away from you, you’ll never be able to catch up,” said Patrick Brenner, chief investment officer of multi-asset at Schroders Plc. “We have some exposure but we’re not completely risk-on. If we see a dip, we are ready to buy more.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% after data showed the euro area’s private sector expanded at the fastest pace in 16 months. Nearly all European sectors in the green, lifted by utilities and European wind energy companies, after a US judge ruled Denmark’s Orsted could resume work on its nearly-completed wind farm. The retail sector is the best performer, lifted by Kingfisher, which rose as much as 20% after the home-improvement group raised its full-year guidance. The biggest laggards are healthcare and insurance equities. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Kingfisher shares rise as much as 20%, the most since September 2008, after first-half earnings surpassed analysts’ estimates and the home-improvement retailer raised its full-year guidance to the upper end of the expected range
• Orsted shares gain as much as 12% after a US judge ruled that the Danish wind-farm developer can resume work on its nearly-completed wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island during a lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s stop-work order
• Heineken shares climb as much as 2.4%, the most in more than a month, after the brewer said it will buy Florida Ice and Farm Company’s beverage and retail businesses in a $3.2 billion cash deal
• Smiths shares rise to the highest level on record, climbing as much as 7.2%, after reporting group operating profit for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate
• Hoist Finance shares rise as much as 11%, the most since July, after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying that an expected change in the Swedish debt restructuring firm’s status should allow for payouts to shareholders
• Land Securities rises as much as 4.4%, the most since April, after the commercial real estate firm said it remains on track to deliver its growth guidance this year ahead of its capital markets day
• THG shares rise as much as 8.5% to the highest since February after JP Morgan upgraded its rating on the the online retailer to neutral from underweight
• ASM International shares fall as much as 6.4% after the Dutch chip equipment maker reduced its outlook for second half of the year, citing lower-than-expected demand among both leading-edge logic and mature chip markets
• Hanza falls as much as 12%, the most since February, after Pareto Securities cut its recommendation on the Swedish contract manufacturer to hold from buy, saying it’s time to move to the sidelines after shares climbed over 100% in the past 12 months
• Raspberry Pi shares fall as much as 8.4% after the British PC maker reported a 6% drop in first-half sales, against a high comparison basis last year due to the launch of Pi 5

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks struggled for direction as a rally in semiconductor companies was offset by losses in China and Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan was little changed, after earlier rising 0.4%.  Chipmakers TSMC and Samsung Electronics provided the biggest boost following Nvidia’s announcement of as much as $100 billion investment in OpenAI to build data centers. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China fell more than 1% as a months-long rally took a breather. Baidu’s shares slumped most since April after a 50% jump in the stock price this month. Asian stocks have had a stellar run this year as a weaker US dollar and cheaper valuations drove investors away from American assets. The region’s equities are on track to outperform US peers by the most since 2017.  

In FX, the pound falls after UK PMIs miss expectations across the board. Swedish krona tops G-10 currencies after surprise cut but a hawkish outlook from the Riksbank.

In rates, Treasuries see small rally across the curve with yields lower by 1bp to 2bp on the day. UK Gilts outperform in fixed income, with 10-year yields falling about three basis points following lower-than-expected UK PMI data for September. At the same time, the UK’s 30-year bond sale got the fewest orders since 2022. The rally in gilts supports gains in Treasuries after the UK curve bull flattened. US session focus includes manufacturing PMIs and 2-year note auction. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at 12:35pm New York.

In commodities, WTI futures push higher into early US session and trade over 1% up on the day, capping additional gains in Treasuries. Brent trades above $67/barrel. Gold blows past more records, up about $42 for the session to $3,789/oz.

Today’s US economic data slate includes September Philly Fed non-manufacturing, 2Q current account balance (8:30am), September manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and Richmond Fed manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (8:30am, 3:30pm), Bowman (9am), Bostic (10am) and Powell (12:35pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
• DAX +0.7%
• CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.13%
• VIX little changed at 16.07
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1195.71
• euro little changed at $1.1809
• WTI crude +0.5% at $62.57/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will seek more support from allies when he addresses the UN and meets Donald Trump this week, but behind the scenes Kyiv is quietly preparing for a new phase of the war in which it relies more on itself and its hopes of winning tough new US sanctions on Russia are fading. RTRS
• US President Trump said the FDA will warn physicians about a potential link between acetaminophen (Tylenol) use in pregnancy and autism risk; he advised pregnant women to avoid Tylenol and said do not take it. Trump also said MMR vaccines should be taken separately and that there is no reason for newborns to be given the Hepatitis B vaccine, according to Reuters.
• Trump will meet this week with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to discuss government funding ahead of a looming shutdown deadline. Politico
• AI companies face an $800 billion revenue shortfall by 2030, Bain warned, threatening their ability to fund computing power needed to meet demand. BBG
• Jamie Dimon, on Fed rate cuts, said further reductions will be difficult: CNBC
• The OECD warned that the world economy has yet to feel the full impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs, despite recent resilience. It raised its forecast for world growth to 3.2% this year, but expects it to moderate to 2.9% in 2026 amid higher import duties. BBG
• Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang met political and business leaders from the U.S. Midwest, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday, with analysts speculating the region’s food exports will be key to any U.S.-China trade deal. U.S.-China commercial ties had featured in Monday’s talks, the ministry said in a statement, without giving details. RTRS
• China is pushing to become custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves, people familiar said. The PBOC is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange to court central banks in friendly countries to buy bullion and store it within the country’s borders. BBG
• The euro-area private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 16 months, driven by strong German services offsetting a slump in France. The PMI rose to 51.2, beating expectations. UK PMIs missed across the board. BBG
• Sweden’s Riksbank eased interest rates to 1.75% and signaled a pause ahead, aiming to support economic recovery. No further easing is expected through 2028. BBG
• ASM International shares fell after cutting its second-half revenue outlook, citing weaker demand from some its clients. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon noted tariffs could be modestly inflationary but uncertain if the impact is temporary, via Times of India interview.
• US lawmaker Smith noted the intention to improve communication channels between China and the US.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts, whilst there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday. ASX 200 eked gains, once again lifted by gold miners as the yellow metal printed fresh all-time highs, although upside was capped by a deterioration in Flash PMIs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually traded lower with catalysts sparse, but amid the hangover from the anticlimactic Trump-Xi call last week, whilst Hong Kong markets braced for the Super Typhoon, expected to be the worst since at least 2018. KOSPI was again supported by the strong performance in its Tech sector after the NVIDIA/OpenAI announcement. Nifty 50 trimmed its earlier mild gains with the index continuing to be hampered by the US H-1B visa update.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM contender Takaichi proposed using tax revenues for tax cuts and spending measures to tackle inflation, but said she may consider issuing bonds if needed. She said policymakers should be mindful of the risk of causing a yield rise when guiding fiscal policy, but noted that when interest rates rise, so would interest from government assets, according to Reuters.
• Japanese PM contender Koizumi said Japan should use the expected increase in tax revenues and proceeds from expenditure cuts to fund spending for steps to combat the rising cost of living. He said Japan must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline, but achieving solid economic growth is the basis for guiding sound fiscal policy, according to Reuters.
• Japanese PM contender Hayashi said they must avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds to fund spending and keep sending signals to the market that Japan will maintain fiscal discipline, according to Reuters.
• New Zealand is set to appoint its first female RBNZ Governor; announcement to come as soon as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg sources.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) opened with a slight positive bias, with a couple of indices opening lower. However, as the session progressed, sentiment picked up a touch, and sauntered higher to current peaks. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a couple of industries residing marginally in the red. Retail takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in Kingfisher (+17%) after it reported strong metrics and upgraded its guidance. Healthcare is found right at the foot of the pile, no company-specific drivers but perhaps some jitters surrounding Trump’s move to link paracetamol use during pregnancy with autism.

Top European News

• Riksbank Rate: 1.75% vs. Exp. 2.00% (Prev. 2.00%), Seim dissented, wanted U/C; “If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.”
• Riksbank decision on their holding of long-term Swedish gov’t bonds: “Riksbank has now decided that the holding will be allowed to fluctuate between SEK 18-22bln.” vs prev. SEK 20bln in order to facilitate efficient trading.
• Riksbank’s Thedeen says that the Bank sees a pretty strong recovery ahead; labour market has weakened noticeably.
• OECD sees global growth at 3.2% in 2025 (prev. view of 2.9%) with the 2026 projection held at 2.9%.
• BoE’s Pill says the UK’s approach to QE is more transparent than elsewhere, via Bloomberg; wanted to keep QT at GBP 100bln at the last meeting. Says UK inflation has proved more stubborn than expected, via Bloomberg

FX

• DXY is a touch higher after yesterday’s downside. Macro focus for the US at the start of the week has mainly focussed on Fed speak with policymakers (ex-Miran) largely taken a cautious approach to further easing. To recap, 2026 voter Hammack noted that she has one of the higher estimates of neutral and judges that policy is only modestly restrictive. Today’s speaker highlight will be Fed Chair Powell at 17:35BST, who will be speaking on the economic outlook and in a more personal capacity to that seen last week at the Fed press conference. Other speakers today include 2025 voters Goolsbee and Bowman. On the data slate, flash PMIs are due. However, these often play second-fiddle in the US to the ISM series. DXY delved as low as 97.19 overnight before move back above Monday’s 97.29 low.
• EUR was knocked lower in early trade following a dismal PMI report from France, which saw all three key metrics, decline from the prior, miss analyst consensus and sit in contractionary territory. The accompanying report noted that “the increasingly tense domestic political situation likely to have a negative impact on household consumption and investment decisions.” As such, HCOB expects “GDP growth rates to be between 0.5 and 1 percent in both 2025 and 2026”. Thereafter, the German release saw the manufacturing print dissapoint by remaining in contractionary territory. However, this was offset by an unexpected expansion in the services sector, which helped the composite remain above the 50 threshold and EUR fade French-induced downside. The Eurozone data reflected the trend seen in Germany (servives > manufacutring), however, the associated report suggested that “we’re still a long way from seeing any real momentum.” EUR/USD has returned to a 1.17 handle.
• Overnight, USD/JPY fell under its 50 DMA (147.68) and dipped under Monday’s low (147.66), before recovering amid a lack of noteworthy drivers and with Japanese participants away on the Autumnal Equinox holiday. Ahead of the LDP leadership election, poll leader Takaichi has proposed using tax revenues for tax cuts and spending measures to tackle inflation, but said she may consider issuing bonds if needed. Her closest rival, Koizumi said Japan should use the expected increase in tax revenues and proceeds from expenditure cuts to fund spending for steps to combat the rising cost of living. However, Japan must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline.
• GBP sits at the foot of the G10 leaderboard following a dissapointing showing for September flash PMI metrics. All three metrics fell short of expectations with the services and composite prints remaining in expansionary territory but below the bottom end of analyst consensus. Manufacturing delved further into contractionary mode. The accompanying release noted “September’s flash UK PMI survey brought a litany of worrying news including weakening growth, slumping overseas trade, worsening business confidence and further steep job losses”. Cable ventured as high as 1.3528 overnight before slipping back onto a 1.34 handle with a current session low at 1.3488.
• Antipodeans softened overnight amid weakness in Chinese markets. AUD/USD was also weighed on by a marked deterioration in Flash PMIs, albeit the data remained in expansion territory. NZD/USD was subdued, whilst Bloomberg sources suggested a new RBNZ Governor could be announced as soon as Wednesday.
• Alongside a split consensus between a 25bps reduction and an unchanged rate, the Riksbank opted to cut the policy rate by 25bps. The decision to do so was subject to hawkish dissent from Seim on account of her concerns over potential upside inflation surprises stemming supply side and fiscal factors. Offsetting the dovish impule from the rate cut was accompanying commentary that the Bank expects the policy rate to “remain at this level for some time to come.” Two-way price action in EUR/SEK, given it the announcement shared the release timing with German PMIs; but overall EUR/SEK ended up heading back to above pre-release levels.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1057 vs exp. 7.1066 (Prev. 7.1106)
• RBI reportedly sold USD via state-run banks to support the rupee after hitting record lows, according to Reuters, citing traders

Fixed Income

• USTs came under modest pressure overnight, to a 112-21+ low before gradually picking up into and throughout the European morning. Upside that occurred despite the constructive European risk tone and the slight pressure seen in Bunds at the time. Nothing particularly fresh in European hours for US participants, as we digest the numerous Fed speakers seen yesterday and look to today’s packed docket featuring Chair Powell; remarks that will allow the Chair to give his rather than the overall Fed’s view on monetary policy and the economy. Within the comments, any language around the neutral rate will draw focus given the range of views outlined in recent sessions.
• Bunds are softer by a handful of ticks. Began the day softer before lifting into the green in-line with USTs at first. French measures came in weaker across the board and outside the forecast range. HCOB wrote that activity weakened more sharply than at any point since April and forward-looking indicators not suggesting any major improvements in the coming months. Thereafter, the generally stronger German measures sent Bunds to a 128.15 low with downside of 11 ticks at most. Limited reaction to the EZ-wide figures. Further out, HCOB writes that “the outlook for manufacturing is looking a bit cloudy”. German auction was a little softer-than-prior but sparked little moved.
• Gilts opened near-enough unchanged. Modest action in-fitting with Bunds alongside the European PMI metrics. Thereafter, the UK’s own figures were softer than expected across the board and markedly so for the services and composite measures. Within the series, S&P said it brought a “litany” of worrying news with the only good news being a moderation of price pressure. Ahead, surmising that “…it’s unlikely that the economy will make any strong gains in the months ahead irrespective of the outlook for interest rates.” A series that lifted Gilts by around 15 ticks to a 91.06 high with gains of 22 ticks at best. And at the time the clear outperformer. Thereafter, supply was poor. The first outing of the 2056 line saw a strong cover in excess of 3x but a substantial 20.5 tick price tail. Results of this weighed on Gilts and saw nearly all of the PMI move retraced, Gilts remain the outperformer but only marginally and are back towards the midpoint of 90.75-91.06 parameters.
• UK sells GBP 1.5bln 5.375% 2056 Gilt: b/c 3.07x, average yield 5.476%, tail 1.4bps.
• Germany sells EUR 3.601bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 1.90% 2027 Schatz: b/c 1.8x (prev. 2.0x), average yield 2.01% (prev. 1.96%) & retention 19.98% (prev. 21.07%).

Commodities

• A softer start to the session for crude, at most benchmarks lower by around USD 0.45/bbl. However, across the European morning the benchmarks have been gradually lifting off lows and moving to just above the unchanged mark on the session. Currently, towards the upper-end of USD 61.85-62.53/bbl and USD 66.10-66.75/bbl parameters for WTI and Brent respectively.
• Spot gold is continuing to climb and at another ATH of USD 3780/oz. A high that occurred after a Bloomberg report that China is aiming to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves as it aims to improve its standing on the global bullion market. Prior to this, the narrative for gold hadn’t really changed, with the strength underpinned generally by the Fed’s easing cycle, day-to-day by ongoing geopolitical headlines and aided by numerous desks lifting their forecasts for the precious metal.
• Copper picked up overnight in reaction to the strong US risk tone amid the NVIDIA and OpenAI update. However, the complex failed to glean much from this with 3M LME Copper dipping back below the USD 10k/t mark and into the red.
• China is aiming to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves as it aims to improve its standing on the global bullion market, via Bloomberg. The PBoC is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange to country central banks in allied countries to buy bullion and store it within China.
• Chile’s development agency Corfo informed the comptroller office of contract changes to enable the Codelco-SQM lithium deal, according to Reuters.
• Congo President noted intention to strengthen partnership with US, focusing on mining sector and infrastructure development but rules out auctioning mineral resources to US, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: NATO-Russia

• Sweden’s Defence Minister said “Sweden has the right to defend its airspace, with force if necessary”, according to Swedish press.
• “Unidentified drones over Stockholm, the capital of Sweden”, according to unconfirmed local reports cited by geopolitical watchers on X.
• Oslo Airport spokesperson confirmed airspace has been closed since midnight local time due to drone sightings, with all flights diverted to nearby airports, according to Reuters.
• Copenhagen airport reopened following closure due to drone activity, according to Reuters.
• Russia’s Kremlin says time is short and allowing nuclear treaty with the US to expire would be fraught with risks for international security; Not clear yet when Russian President Putin and US President Trump will speak again

Geopolitics: Middle East

• EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday, according to WSJ’s Norman.
• Trump to present Arab leaders with US principles for ending Gaza war, and the US seeks agreement from Arab and Muslim nations to deploy troops to Gaza, facilitating Israeli withdrawal and securing transition funding, according to Axios.
• UKMTO reports incident 120 nautical miles east of Yemen’s Aden; reports splash and sound of an explosion in its vicinity, crews and vessel reported safe.

Geopolitics: Others

• The White House said US President Trump will meet with the UN Secretary General and leaders of Ukraine, Argentina and the EU at the UN, and will also hold a multilateral meeting with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, the UAE and Jordan, according to Reuters.
• Turkish President Erdogan said he will discuss F-35 negotiations with US President Trump during the upcoming meeting, via Fox News interview.
• US, South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers jointly opposed unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea, according to a statement.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: 2Q Current Account Balance, est. -256.55b, prior -450.17b
• 9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.2, prior 53
• 9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 53.95, prior 54.5
• 9:45 am: Sep P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 54, prior 54.6
• 10:00 am: Sep Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -5, prior -7

Fed Speakers 

• 8:30 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC
• 9:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Live Podcast Interview
• 12:35 pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 3:30 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on ABC News Live

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Our Q3 survey launched yesterday with questions on your perception of Fed independence, where we are with German stimulus versus early year expectations and whether there is a bubble in various asset classes. Regular questions also get an airing to see where your views have evolved over the months, quarters and years. It will stay open until Thursday morning and all help filling it in will be gratefully appreciated. You can complete here. Speaking of surveys, Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan have just published highlights from our exclusive dbDataInsights survey of AI use and fears among people in Europe and the US. Young people are most worried, while their older colleagues aren’t bothered. Click here for more.

Risk assets continued to move higher over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.44%) racing ahead to yet another record high. Tech news again drove this optimism as Nvidia (+3.93%) announced a strategic deal with OpenAI that will see the chipmaker invest as much as $100bn in helping OpenAI build new data centers and other AI infrastructure. In turn, the NASDAQ (+0.70%) the Mag-7 (+0.75%) also hit new highs, with the Mag-7 now up +20.43% year-to-date.

So increasingly, the profile of US equity gains is looking very much like 2023 and 2024 again, where the annual gains are being driven by a very narrow group of stocks. Indeed, the S&P 500 is now up +13.81% so far this year, whereas the equal-weighted version is only up +7.65%. Or in other words, it’s been the Magnificent 7 driving the gains, and most of the index has seen a steady, but not spectacular performance this year. As my CoTD showed yesterday (link here), the spectacular performance has been away from the US where we also showed that there has been a decent correlation between low starting valuations for 2025 and strong returns.

The other asset class to reach yet more record highs was gold, which rose +1.67% to $3,747/oz and now up more than +42% on a YTD basis. So that now leaves gold prices well on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, when prices surged +127% against the backdrop of the oil crisis after the Iranian Revolution, which caused a fresh surge for inflation and led investors to seek out gold as a hedge against that. In real terms gold prices didn’t actually cross the highs seen around this time until earlier this month some 45 years later (see my CoTD last week here on this). While gold hit a fresh record, Bitcoin moved lower (-2.20%), along with the likes of Ethereum (-6.55%) as some momentum has come out of crypto in the last several days. On this topic Marion in my team published a paper yesterday that posits Gold and Bitcoin as viable alternatives to the dollar for Central Bank reserve assets. It’s full of interesting charts and you can find it on our Research Institute site here.

For rates markets, this week was always going to mostly be about Fedspeak and the week kicked off in a slightly hawkish direction on that front, notwithstanding Miran’s expectedly dovish comments. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-voter) gave an interview with the WSJ, where he said he only pencilled in one rate cut for this year, and that he was “concerned about the inflation that has been too high for a long time”. Later on, St Louis Fed President Musalem (voter) said that “there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative”, while Cleveland Fed President Hammack (non-voter) suggested policy was only “very mildly” restrictive. So by and large there was a reluctance to firmly commit to further easing. Admittedly, Governor Miran gave a speech in which he described policy as “very restrictive” and argued that “the appropriate fed funds rate is in the mid-2 percent area”. But given Miran was outvoted at the last meeting as the only member to vote for a 50bp cut, markets weren’t reactive to his remarks as a signpost for near-term policy.

Those comments led investors to slightly dial back the expected pace of rate cuts over the months ahead. For instance by the close, futures priced in 43bps of cuts by the December meeting, down -1.7bps compared to Friday. So, there’s high confidence that we’ll get one more cut this year, but a bit more doubt on the second. And it’s worth remembering that it would have only taken one member to shift the median dot back from 3 cuts in 2025 to 2, so it was already on a knife-edge at the last meeting. Meanwhile, with investors dialling back their rate cut pricing, that led to a uptick in Treasury yields across the curve. So, the 2yr yield (+3.1bps) rose to 3.60%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.0bps) moved up to 4.15%. We’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell as well today, but given there haven’t been material data developments since last week’s press conference, our US economists expect his tone to align closely with his remarks last week.

Back in Europe, there was a bit more of a risk-off tone yesterday, with the STOXX 600 down -0.13%. That included an underperformance for the DAX (-0.49%), which was driven by declines for Porsche (-8.22%) and its parent Volkswagen (-7.09%) after they cut their forecast for this year’s profit. So that left the two as the worst performers in the DAX index.  Meanwhile, sovereigns also lost modest ground, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.2bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+1.2bps) all moving higher. We’re getting closer to the start of the German fiscal money hitting the economy as we edge towards Q4. Our economists believe that the money will materialise quickly. Over the summer it does seem that money originally earmarked for infrastructure has been diverted more towards consumption-oriented spending. That actually might get into the economy quicker but will cast doubts over whether the long-run growth rate will be influenced as much as hoped. Elsewhere UK assets saw a relatively stronger performance, with the FTSE 100 (+0.11%) and 10yr gilts (-0.3bps) both rallying.

Asian equity markets are mixed with low trading volumes given there is a Japanese holiday. In the region, Chinese stocks are at the forefront of losses, with the Hang Seng (-0.92%) lower as local technology stocks pull back from a remarkable rally over the past month. The CSI (-0.83%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.96%) are also trading significantly lower, as risk sentiment fluctuates between hopes for stimulus and signs of sluggish domestic growth. Conversely, the KOSPI (+0.33%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.55%) are higher. US equity futures are down just under a tenth of a percent with US Treasuries not yet trading due to the Japanese holiday.

Early morning data indicated that Australia’s business activity growth decelerated in September, hindered by weaker new orders and renewed pressures on exports. The S&P Global Flash composite PMI for Australia decreased to 52.1 in September from 55.5 in August, remaining above the 50 threshold for the 12th consecutive month. The services activity index fell to 52.0 from 55.8 the previous month, while the manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.6 from 53.0 as output growth also slowed.

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the September flash PMIs from the US and Europe. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bowman and Bostic, and the ECB’s Muller, Kocher and Cipollone.

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