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August 30, 2025
factors,” Eric Sheridan and Stephen Laszczyk write in the team’s 2025 edition of the annual “Music in the Air” report.
“But we still think the industry has significant scope to increase in value, even if growth is slower than initially anticipated,” Sheridan and Laszczyk say. Our analysts expect revenues to hit nearly $200 billion in 2035, from $105 billion in 2024.
But the drivers, they say, “will be different from those over the last 5 or 10 years.” New streaming markets, new models to monetize music, video content, and superfans offer potential for the industry to expand its revenues.
In 2024, the ■ recorded music and ■ live music segments grew slower than expected. But both segments—and live music in particular—are expected to pick up pace in 2025. Goldman Sachs Research projects global music revenues to grow by 7.7% year-on-year in 2025.
“From 752 million paid streaming subscribers in 2024, we estimate the industry to grow to 1.5 billion subscribers by 2035.”
One in five internet users could be a paid streaming subscriber by 2035
The momentum of streaming services slowed last year, in terms of revenues—in part because of the maturation of paid streaming penetration in developed markets, as well as subscribers’ shift towards discounted plans. Goldman Sachs Research has lowered its forecasts for the growth of paid streaming revenues slightly, to 9% and 9.4% in 2025 and 2026 respectively (versus 10.9% and 9.9% earlier). In the longer term, though, our analysts continue to expect the future of streaming to be robust.
Through the 2010s, developed markets drove global subscriber growth, as penetration rose rapidly from 3% in 2014 to 38% in 2024, on our analysts’ estimates. However, this growth began to decelerate to high single digits in 2023-24 as the streaming market matured. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts mid-single digit growth for developed markets such as the US and the UK over the next five years. Most developed markets will reach peak penetration at around 75% by 2035, our analysts expect.
In 2024, streaming penetration in emerging markets was just 8%, and our analysts expect that to rise to 14% in a decade—which still leaves an untapped audience of billions. These markets are often more price sensitive, so music streamers may have to work harder to turn listeners into paying subscribers. But the process is under way. Last year, our analysts say, emerging markets contributed 60% of new subscribers.
The average spend in the US on paid music streaming is around $14 per month, compared with $69 for streaming video users.
Even as a major round of price increases on streaming platforms is under way, our analysts believe there will be more regular increases in the future. Thus far, music streaming has lagged on-demand video streaming in terms of price; in the US, the monthly subscription price for streaming video has been rising by 15% nearly every two years for the past decade, whereas music streaming prices have been largely stagnant.
The music business could find further opportunity in segmenting its audiences and targeting the “superfan”—the heaviest listeners of streaming music, who may pay more for premium audio quality, early access to merchandise and events, and exclusive content. Our analysts estimate that monetizing these superfans better could add $6.6 billion to the industry’s revenues by 2035—a 21% uplift to paid streaming revenues.
In the US, one out of every five music listeners is considered a superfan of at least one artist, and consumer data suggests that 30% of listeners in the UK fall into that category.
Our analysts expect live music to grow at a 7.2% compounded annual growth rate between 2024 and 2030. This is underpinned by demand from millennials and Gen Z. The live music industry shows resilience in times of economic uncertainty. Spending on live music in the US has, in fact, grown during recent recessionary periods. For this reason, the industry has seen a 76% rise in ticket revenue between 2019 and 2024. Tickets have gotten more expensive, seemingly without affecting the growth of live music. The average ticket price for a concert in one of the top 100 worldwide tours was $136 in 2024—50% higher than the $91 price in 2019.
The music industry is changing
Sheridan and Laszczyk also expect other significant shifts in the industry. Among them is a move towards video—or, as they describe it, “a blurring of lines between different forms.” As a way to attract new users, Sheridan and Laszczyk say, “we’re seeing more players push video content onto their platforms.” Streamers are also bundling audiobook and music subscriptions to merge those two audiences.
Although generative artificial intelligence (AI) once prompted worries about the proliferation of new, AI-generated music on streaming platforms, there has been no evidence of that yet. “But AI remains a key topic,” Sheridan and Laszczyk say. “What we’re seeing is a collaboration between music publishers and platforms to try to protect the interests of artists from the disruptions of AI.”
The team has also changed its forecast for the ad-supported streaming market, now projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% between 2025 and 2030, versus 11.3% previously. “That’s a reflection of cyclical pressure,” Sheridan and Laszczyk say. “Given macroeconomic concerns, we see slower growth for ads in the near term. The ad-supported revenue model will take time to improve—but it will happen.”
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