Growth: The global economy is expected to continue its path of BOOMING steady growth.
September 4, 2025Climate Change Hoax: Zeldin described the program as a “gold bar” scheme, and said the cancellation was based on “substantial concerns regarding program integrity, objections to the award process, programmatic fraud, waste and abuse, and misalignment with the agency’s priorities.”
September 5, 2025
Recent news focuses on the economic impact and political fallout of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with potential for retaliatory tariffs from trading partners like Brazil and India. These tariffs are expected to raise significant revenue and could lead to higher prices for American consumers and some trade disruptions, although the broader impact on supply chains may be less severe than initially feared. Additionally, the U.S. has seen a shift in its trade deficit, with a rise in imports contributing to a widening goods deficit in July.
Economic Impacts of Tariffs
Tariffs on imported goods are expected to make them more expensive, leading to higher prices for American consumers.
Some companies are responding by reducing imports and sourcing goods domestically or from other countries, which could lead to delays and higher costs for products with imported components.
In July, the U.S. trade deficit increased as imports grew more than exports, with the goods deficit rising significantly.
Some analyses suggest that the tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP and market income, though the extent of the negative effect on the economy is a subject of ongoing study.
International Reactions and Retaliation
Brazilian President Lula has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on U.S.-origin goods if the U.S. proceeds with its planned tariffs, according to the Trade Compliance Resource Hub.
India may also retaliate, with its exports to the U.S. facing significant risk from the tariffs, potentially impacting jobs in key industries like textiles and jewelry.
Policy and Political Context
- Congressional Action:
Congress has previously tried to undo some tariffs, but these efforts have not passed the House.
- Border Delays:
The new tariffs have already led to tighter customs checks at the U.S. border, causing delays for goods.
What to Watch
- Global Growth:
Analysts are monitoring the impact of these tariffs on global growth, with initial expectations of a downturn being somewhat moderated by the gradual nature of the tariff hikes.
- Economic Data:
Watch for upcoming data releases from sources like the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to get a clearer picture of the U.S. economy’s performance.
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Bond investors count on Trump tariff revenues to rein in US debt President’s levies now seen as a way to offset tax cuts and keep a lid on government borrowing Some investors worry that lower tariff revenues will lead to more issuance of US government debt © Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images Bond investors count on Trump tariff revenues to rein in US debt on x (opens in a new window) Bond investors count on Trump tariff revenues to rein in US debt on facebook (opens in a new window) Bond investors count on Trump tariff revenues to rein in US debt on linkedin (opens in a new window) Save current progress 96% Ian Smith and Emily Herbert in London and Aiden Reiter in New York PublishedSEP 3 2025 335 Print this page Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world Bond traders are banking on revenue from Donald Trump’s tariffs to bolster US public finances, in a sharp switch from earlier this year when his trade war triggered a brutal sell-off in the Treasury market. The US president’s sweeping tariffs on trading partners hammered global markets in April and sparked fears of an economic shock, prompting the president to suspend some of the levies. But investors are now counting on hundreds of billions of dollars raised by the remaining tariffs to offset Trump’s tax cuts and keep a lid on US borrowing. “The only way I can see for the US government to reduce its outstanding debt in the near term is to use the tariff revenue,” said Andy Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, citing also revenues from chipmakers’ China sales. “If all of the sudden the tariff revenue will not be there, that is a problem.” The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office last month forecast Trump’s tariffs would boost US government revenues by $4tn over the coming decade. That would help pay for tax cuts in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is projected to increase borrowing by $4.1tn over the same period. The shift in market sentiment comes after months of turmoil in Trump’s economic strategy, including his stop-start tariff war with trading partners such as China and his attacks on the US Federal Reserve, which continue to unnerve investors. The president has used tariffs to pursue geopolitical aims and spur domestic re-industrialisation, while also vowing to raise “trillions of dollars” in revenue from the tax on imports. Doubts about those tariff revenues hit markets late on Friday, when an appeals court upheld a US Court of International Trade ruling that Trump had exceeded his powers when he imposed some of the levies. The appellate court allowed the tariffs to remain in place while the White House took the matter to the Supreme Court. The ruling was a catalyst behind a US government bond sell-off on Tuesday and Wednesday, analysts said, as investors worried that reduced tariff revenues would lead to a greater glut of Treasury issuance. Thierry Wizman, a global rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said: “If the bulk of Trump’s tariff programme is nullified by the courts some analysts will cheer, inflation will subside, growth may improve, and the Fed may be more inclined to ease monetary policy. But if the focus is on debt and deficits at that time, the bond market may riot.” He added: “The risk that tariffs go away but the [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] stays may become the dominant risk for [US Treasuries] over the next few weeks.” S&P and Fitch have signalled that tariff revenues were a factor in their decisions not to further downgrade the US sovereign credit rating. Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, said there was “a hope that tariff revenue can help control the budget deficit”. Global bond markets have steadied since the rout sparked by Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcements in April. However, sovereign debt has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks as record borrowing by rich nations pushes up long-term interest costs. Even with tariff revenues, some investors warn about the daunting scale of the US government’s borrowing needs. Des Lawrence, senior investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, said if the tariffs “were put on pause, it deprives Uncle Sam of a revenue source”. But the “bigger negative picture” is the sheer scale of government spending, he said. Without tariff revenue, the CBO expects US debt relative to GDP to surpass its second world war peak by 2029. “It’s helpful in plugging a gap, but there’s still a big issue in America spending much more than it’s receiving,” Lawrence said. On Wednesday evening the Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to hear its appeal against the tariff rejection ruling as quickly as possible.
Trump tariffs live updates: Trump files appeal to Supreme Court, says US may ‘unwind’ deals if it loses case
President Trump has asked the Supreme Court for an immediate hearing in hopes of overturning an appeals court ruling that deemed most of his tariffs illegal.
His administration called for the high court to put the case on a highly expedited schedule, with arguments starting in early November, according to reported filings.
On Wednesday, Trump said the US may have to “unwind” existing trade deals, including with the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, if the Supreme Court doesn’t uphold the tariffs.
“If we don’t win that case, our country is going to suffer so greatly,” Trump told reporters before meeting with Polish President Karol Nawrocki. “These deals are all done. I guess we’d have to unwind them.”
One of those deals was cemented Thursday, as Trump signed an executive order implementing the US’s pact with Japan.
A federal appeals court ruled Friday that most of Trump’s global tariffs were illegal, reaffirming an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade and saying he exceeded his authority in using emergency powers to impose them. The judges, however, allowed the tariffs to remain in place while the case moves through the appeals process.
Other members of the administration are making backup plans, however. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is confident the Supreme Court will back Trump’s use of the 1977 emergency law to impose broad tariffs but said the administration is working on a Plan B.
In any case, the “reciprocal” tariffs Trump unveiled on dozens of US trade partners (which you can see in the graphic below) now face legal limbo.
Elsewhere, Trump has said he is not considering lowering tariffs on India, a week after the US doubled duties on its imports to 50% in response to India’s purchase of Russian oil.
When a reporter asked if he might roll back some of the tariffs, Trump replied, “No.”
Trump has amped up criticism of the trade relationship between the US and India, saying it has been heavily one-sided for decades. Trump’s comments came as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has embarked on bids to strengthen ties with China and Russia as relations with the US have deteriorated. On Tuesday, Trump suggested he wasn’t considering lowering tariffs on India.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world.
LIVE 1809 updates
Thu, September 4, 2025 at 3:47 PM CDT
Brett LoGiurato
Trump signs executive order implementing trade pact with Japan
President Trump has signed an executive order implementing the US’s trade deal with Japan, the White House said Thursday.
The move cements tariffs of 15% on most imports from Japan.
“Under the Agreement, the United States will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports entering the United States, alongside separate sector-specific treatment for automobiles and automobile parts; aerospace products; generic pharmaceuticals; and natural resources that are not naturally available or produced in the United States,” the order
You can read the full order here.
- Thu, September 4, 2025 at 11:44 AM CDT
Grace O’Donnell
US trade deficit widens to largest in 4 months
The US trade deficit widened to its largest amount in four months in July as companies raced to import products in order to front-run President Trump’s latest round of broad-based tariffs.
Bloomberg reports that the goods and services trade gap grew nearly 33% from the prior month to $78.3 billion, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The value of imported goods increased 5.9% in July, driven by industrial supplies, consumer goods, gold, and capital equipment. Exports also ticked higher during the month.
The swings in trade this year have created volatility in gross domestic product (GDP) readings as well, as frequent policy changes have led some importers to pull forward or pause shipments. Following the release of trade deficit data, Goldman Sachs lowered its third quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7%.
Read more here from Bloomberg.
- Thu, September 4, 2025 at 10:45 AM CDT
Grace O’Donnell
If Trump’s biggest tariffs get thrown out, companies could get a refund — but not consumers
While companies absorb tariff costs and pass some of them along to consumers, President Trump has been touting the amount of money US tariffs are bringing the government.
But if the Supreme Court upholds a lower court’s ruling that the tariffs are illegal, thereby striking them down, the government could have to refund the taxes it has collected on imported goods. That would mark a huge reversal in Trump’s trade policy — but not one that is likely to land consumers any cash back.
From the AP:
“We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars potentially in refunds affecting thousands and thousands of importers,” said trade lawyer Luis Arandia, a partner with the law firm of Barnes & Thornburg. “Unwinding all that will be the largest administrative effort in U.S. government history.’’
Ordinary Americans, who’ve had to pay higher prices on some products because of the tariffs, are unlikely to share in the windfall. Any refunds would go instead to the companies that paid the levies in the first place.
The refunds would also reverse the flow of tariff revenue the president has counted on to help pay for the massive tax-cut bill he signed July 4 and would threaten, he warns, to “literally destroy the United States of America.’’
- Thu, September 4, 2025 at 10:10 AM CDT
Grace O’Donnell
India looking beyond US for pharma exports amid tariff tensions
India is seeking to boost drug exports to Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, in an effort to reduce dependence on the US market amid tariff concerns, Reuters reports.
From Reuters:
The Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil) also plans to push for sales of finished goods to China to bridge the trade deficit, the officials said. The Indian industry imports more than 60% of its raw materials and active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.
While Indian pharmaceutical exports are currently exempt from President Donald Trump‘s tariffs of up to 50%, growing uncertainty and tensions between the countries have kept the industry cautious.
“It is a matter of concern for us,” Pharmexcil Chairman Namit Joshi said, referring to the U.S. tariffs.
The U.S. is India’s largest market and accounts for slightly more than a third of India’s pharmaceutical exports, which comprise mainly cheaper generic versions of popular drugs. Exports to the country rose 20% to about $10.5 billion in fiscal 2025.
- Thu, September 4, 2025 at 7:00 AM CDT
Karen Friar
China hits US optical-fiber imports with tariffs
China just made its latest deliberated move in its trade dance with the Trump administration.
Bloomberg reports:
China started imposing levies on additional US optical fiber imports, after a six-month investigation found that American companies had circumvented its anti-dumping measures.
The duties, ranging from 33.3% to 78.2%, took effect Thursday Beijing time on “certain cut-off shifted single-mode optical fiber” from the US, according to a statement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.
Among the companies subject to the new duties, Corning Inc. (GLW) now faces a 37.9% levy, OFS Fitel LLC is at 33.3% and Draka Communications Americas Inc. has a 78.2% duty.
The probe was the first anti-circumvention investigation China has ever initiated, the Mofcom said in a separate statement published Thursday.
- Thu, September 4, 2025 at 5:26 AM CDT
Karen Friar
US and Japan said to near deal to put auto tariffs into effect
Reuters reports:
Japan and the United States are in the final stages of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese automobile imports within 10-14 days after the issuance of a U.S. presidential executive order, a Japanese government source told Reuters on Thursday.
That means that a reduced U.S. tariff rate on Japanese cars, from the current 27.5% to 15%, is set to take effect by the end of this month, said the source, who declined to be identified as the matter is confidential.
The exact date to be specified in the executive order is still under discussion, the source said, adding that the final decision would rest with U.S. President Donald Trump.
- Thu, September 4, 2025 at 5:05 AM CDT
Karen Friar
Trump asks the Supreme Court to move fast and uphold his tariffs
Bloomberg reports:
President Donald Trump asked the US Supreme Court to uphold his global tariffs, seeking review in a case that could affect trillions of dollars in trade and give him broad new leverage over the world economy.
The appeal calls for putting the case on a highly expedited schedule with arguments in early November, according to filings reviewed by Bloomberg. It follows a federal appeals court decision that said Trump can’t impose wide-scale import taxes by invoking a 1977 law designed to address national emergencies. …
The financial stakes alone make the case one of the biggest ever to land at the Supreme Court. A defeat for Trump would cut the current average US effective tariff rate of 16.3% by at least half and could force the US to refund tens of billions of dollars, according to Bloomberg Economics analyst Chris Kennedy. It could also upend the preliminary trade deals Trump has struck with some countries.
The levies remain in effect because the appeals court put its ruling on hold to give Trump time to seek Supreme Court review.
The decision nonetheless “has jeopardized ongoing foreign negotiations and threatens framework deals,” US Solicitor General D. John Sauer told the court.
Wed, September 3, 2025 at 2:14 PM CDT
Brett LoGiurato
Carney sends envoy to DC after ‘constructive’ Trump call
Bloomberg reports on some progress around talks between the US and Canada:
Mark Carney said Canada and the US are in negotiations to resolve issues in tariff-affected sectors after a “very constructive” conversation with President Donald Trump on Monday evening.
The Canadian prime minister said more meetings are taking place in Washington involving officials including Michael Sabia, Canada’s top civil servant.
“We are expecting agreements in some of the strategic sectors,” Carney told reporters Wednesday in Toronto, referring to industries that have been targeted by US tariffs such as autos, steel and aluminum.
But he also cautioned that a deal might not come together quickly. “Don’t expect immediate white smoke on one of these strategic sectors, but that’s the type of conversation that we’re having.”
As a reminder, some goods from Canada face 35% US tariffs. But many goods are exempted under the US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement, leading Carney to boast that the effective 5.5% rate is the “lowest average tariff of any country in the world.”
But sectoral duties — and overall certainty — remain a concern:
Decades of integration have made metals and cars some of Canada’s biggest exports to the US, its biggest foreign buyer by far.
More than 90% of Canada’s iron, steel and aluminum exports are US-bound, making the sectors highly vulnerable to Trump’s 50% tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. Canada hit back with a 25% counter-tariff on the metals from the US, but in August it removed a range of other retaliation as it seeks a deal with Trump.
- Wed, September 3, 2025 at 12:11 PM CDT
Amalya Dubrovsky
Trump: US may have to ‘unwind’ trade deals if it loses tariff case
President Trump weighed in on the potential repercussions of the recent legal challenge to his trade policy on Wednesday.
Reuters reports:
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the United States might have to “unwind” trade deals it has clinched with the European Union, Japan and South Korea, among others, if it loses a Supreme Court case on the legality of tariffs.
Trump, speaking to reporters at the start of a meeting with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, said his administration was asking the Supreme Court to reverse a U.S. appeals court ruling last week that found many of his tariffs were illegal.
Losing that case would leave the United States far poorer, and could jeopardize trade agreements made in recent months, he said, adding that he thought the administration would prevail.
“Our country has a chance to be unbelievably rich again. It could also be unbelievably poor again. If we don’t win that case, our country is going to suffer so greatly, so greatly,” he said.
Read more here.
Wed, September 3, 2025 at 10:59 AM CDT
Brett LoGiurato
Bolsonaro’s coup trial speeds ahead as his son tries to keep Trump engaged
Bloomberg has an interesting nugget in a story today about former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, took a leave from Brazil’s Congress and moved to the US to lobby President Trump on his father’s cause. He wasn’t pushing for — and didn’t expect — the US leader to respond by levying 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Politically, it has backfired.
From Bloomberg:
When he left Brazil, Eduardo said he would push the White House to sanction Moraes under the Magnitsky Act, a law allowing the US to target alleged human rights abusers. Trump, however, initially opted for 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports — a move that caught nearly everyone off guard.
Lula quickly seized on the levies, casting Eduardo as a traitor of the nation begging for foreign intervention. His approval ratings rose in the immediate aftermath before falling slightly in August. The right, meanwhile, plunged into disarray.
Eduardo acknowledged this week that tariffs hadn’t been his “original plan,” but said he had full faith in Trump.
“I trust him, I trust his strategy,” he said in an online interview with a conservative journalist. “I’m very glad we were able to get his attention.”
He also urged Trump to keep pressing after imposing sanctions on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who opened Tuesday’s proceedings by defending the court’s sovereignty from US threats.
The trial could wrap up as soon as next week.
Wed, September 3, 2025 at 9:32 AM CDT
Jenny McCall
India tackles three-tier popcorn tax as Trump tariffs spur reform
India’s popcorn lovers have to navigate a confusing tax system, which is all about to change due to President Trump’s tariffs.
A vendor makes popcorn along a roadside in Amritsar on January 11, 2022. (Photo by NARINDER NANU / AFP) (Photo by NARINDER NANU/AFP via Getty Images) · NARINDER NANU via Getty Images
The FT reports:
India’s consumers are spoilt for choice when it comes to popcorn — and it is a question of tax as much as taste. Sales tax is 5 per cent for salted loose popcorn, 12 per cent for packaged popcorn and a hefty 18 per cent for caramelised popcorn.
The three-tier popcorn tax is for many emblematic of a goods and service tax that has long been criticised for its labyrinthine and confusing classifications.
This week, ministers and states are set to approve the biggest reform to this tax in years, a move that Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes will better equip India to withstand trade tensions with the US — and boost sales of popcorn as well as other goods.
“The government will bring ‘Next Generation’ GST reforms, which will bring down the tax burden on the common man. It will be a Diwali gift for you,” Modi said during his Independence Day speech last month, referring to the upcoming festival of light.
Wed, September 3, 2025 at 7:27 AM CDT
Jenny McCall
China to build land-based ‘Suez Canal’ to connect Europe and Asia, bypassing shipping routes
The mountainous city of Chongqing in China has become a major hub for an overland trade route that some say could become the new Suez Canal.
The route is served by rail, and is expected to become Asia’s most important logistics hub.
The South China Morning Post said the city has quickly emerged as a strategic fulcrum in China’s trade network, and its model—if it continues to succeed—could inspire the government to go for similar investments in the west of the country.
Every day, the city manages hundreds of shipments, connecting Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Singapore to Europe, including Germany and Poland, using high-speed freight trains.
Wed, September 3, 2025 at 7:24 AM CDT
Jenny McCall
Campbell’s forecasts muted fiscal 2026 on tariff pressures
Campbell’s Co (CPB) forecast annual sales and profit below Wall Street estimates on Wednesday due to weak demand and higher costs from tariffs.
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Reuters reports:
Campbell’s previously faced higher export costs for soup shipped to Canada, but expects some relief after Canada announced it would remove many retaliatory import tariffs on U.S. goods. A recent U.S.-EU trade agreement also set tariffs at 15% on most EU products — lower than initially proposed rates.
The company reported mixed fourth-quarter results, with net sales rising 1% to $2.32 billion, missing analysts’ average expectation of $2.33 billion, as per data compiled by LSEG.
Its adjusted profit of 62 cents per share, however, beat analyst estimates of 56 cents.
Wed, September 3, 2025 at 4:31 AM CDT
Jenny McCall
Shoppers met with canceled orders, delays as de minimis exemption ends
Consumers, shippers and small firms are scrambling after the US ended a rule that let goods under $800 enter duty-free.
FedEx and UPS delivery vans are seen in Krakow, Poland on February 22, 2022. (Photo by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images) · NurPhoto via Getty Images
The Washington Post reports:
For nearly a century, the de minimis rule allowed low-cost merchandise to bypass import tax. But it expired at 12:01 a.m. Friday, meaning such shipments are now subject to an additional 10 to 50 percent levy that coincides with the tariff rate of the country of origin, or a flat rate of $80 to $200, depending on which option the merchant chooses.
The change has caused widespread uncertainty over how the levies will be collected. President Donald Trump’s July 30 executive order states that transportation carriers have to collect the tax from merchants before arriving in the U.S. using a third-party service preapproved by U.S. Customs and Border Protection. As of midday Friday, only a dozen service providers had been certified to collect and pay such duties.
More than two-dozen countries – including several European nations, Japan and Taiwan ― have suspended some shipments to the U.S. until they sort out a system to collect the duties. That’s prompted some overseas businesses to cancel or hold deliveries until mail carriers conform to the new guidelines. Sabo, an Australian fashion brand, is advising customers that orders will be delayed another five to 10 business days, and that prices will include duties, tariffs and taxes to ensure there are “no surprise fees.”
Wed, September 3, 2025 at 3:29 AM CDT
Jenny McCall
Analysis: Trump’s tariffs threaten to choke European chemicals recovery
Europe’s chemical makers face new strain as US tariffs disrupt trade. Customers are delaying orders, which is hitting demand in a sector struggling to recover from the region’s 2022 energy crisis.
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Reuters reports:
The European Union’s fourth-biggest exporting sector after machinery, automotive and pharmaceuticals, has been grappling in recent years with high production costs after gas and power prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
That and slowing demand due to struggles in key industries have led some companies in the 655-billion euro ($767 billion) sector to close sites and cut jobs to save costs.
U.S. import tariffs of at least 15% on goods from the EU have hit many of the industry’s main customers, including in the automotive, machinery and consumer goods sectors. Global automakers have booked billions of dollars of losses due to the damage done by President Donald Trump‘s trade war.
Wed, September 3, 2025 at 3:11 AM CDT
Jenny McCall
India minister says country hopes to clinch US trade deal by November
India said it aims to finalize a trade pact with the US by November, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said at an investor conference in Mumbai on Tuesday.
He added that talks with the EU are moving forward and ties with China are improving as broader tensions ease.
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal during the World Economic Forum 2022 (WEF) in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland May 25, 2022. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo · Reuters / Reuters
Reuters reports:
India has already finalized trade agreements with Mauritius, Australia, EFTA, the UK, and the UAE, he said at another event.
The United States is India’s largest trading partner, but relations have become strained amid disputes over tariffs and New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil.
Tue, September 2, 2025 at 4:03 PM CDT
Brett LoGiurato
Trump says he’s not considering lowering tariffs on India
President Trump raised tariffs on India last week to 50%, among the highest duties he has imposed on any country.
Trump responded “no” when asked by a reporter whether he is considering taking away some of the tariffs imposed on India.
“We get along with India very well,” Trump added Tuesday at a White House event, but criticized what he said was an imbalanced trade relationship with New Delhi because of high Indian levies.
“India has, you have to understand, for many years, it was a one-sided relationship,” he said. “India was charging us tremendous tariffs, about the highest in the world.”
The US tariffs on India came despite months of negotiations between New Delhi and Washington and stunned officials in the Asian nation. India’s high tariffs and protectionist policies have exasperated US trade negotiators.
Tue, September 2, 2025 at 9:58 AM CDT
Jenny McCall
Merz offers to help Swiss reduce ‘exorbitant’Trump trade tariff
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has offered Switzerland his support after President Trump hit the export-dependent nation with high tariffs last month.
Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meet in the chancellery in Berlin Germany, Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025. Maryam Majd/Pool via REUTERS · via REUTERS / Reuters
Bloomberg News reports:
The 39% tariff Trump slapped on Switzerland is the highest for any developed country and officials in Bern are trying to persuade his administration to accept a new offer by October.
Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter — who made a failed trip to Washington to try to talk Trump around — met with Merz on Tuesday in Berlin and the German leader told reporters he hoped her government managed to cut “the exorbitantly high tariff rate currently demanded by the Americans.”
“Of course I’m happy to include Switzerland, we have have overlapping interests and are trying to solve them together,” Merz said at a joint news conference. “They belong to the European economic area and in that sense we have shared interests that we pursue together.”
Tue, September 2, 2025 at 9:30 AM CDT
Jenny McCall
US manufacturing stay mired in weakness due to tariffs
US manufacturing shrank for the sixth month in August due to import tariffs, though AI spending is giving parts of the industry a boost.
US manufacturing Power Curbers/Handout via REUTERS · via REUTERS / Reuters
Reuters reports:
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday its manufacturing PMI edged up to 48.7 last month from 48.0 in July. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI would rise to 49.0. Despite the persistent weakness in the PMI, businesses have been boosting spending on AI products, which is helping to offset some of the drag from import duties.
Spending on intellectual property products grew at its fastest pace in four years in the second quarter, while investment in equipment was strong. Economists expect the AI spending spree to continue, with factories also likely to get a boost from accelerated depreciation allowances on investments in President Donald Trump‘s tax and spending bill.
Tue, September 2, 2025 at 7:29 AM CDT
Brett LoGiurato
China’s Xi redraws the geopolitical map with embrace of Putin, Modi
China’s Xi Jinping is looking to step in amid trade and geopolitical turmoil and build an “alternative” to the US-led world order.
Cameras captured the Chinese leader in a rare, unscripted huddle on Monday with Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi — his most powerful partners in resisting America on the world stage — at a summit in the Chinese port city of Tianjin. At one point, Xi held hands with his Indian counterpart, as the three men laughed casually, a striking scene given just months earlier New Delhi and Beijing were seen as rivals.
The images were a victory for Xi’s political project to build an alternative to the US-led world order, in which America’s dollar dominance has given it global sway. Hours after the three men gathered at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization event, Beijing signed a major gas pipeline deal with Moscow — rebuking Trump’s efforts to use tariffs to prise India and China away from Russian energy purchases.
“China has developed and sequenced its messages perfectly, and the optics of Xi, Putin and Modi embracing each other are coming sharply into view,” said Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of international relations at Shanghai’s East China Normal University. “This week will be remembered as one in which the world shifted fundamentally.”
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has methodically built up blocs outside the orbit of Washington’s influence. While such groupings have often been dismissed as talking shops, Trump’s trade war is giving them new purpose.
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Stephen Miran pledges to uphold Fed independence without giving up White House role
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Jennifer Schonberger · Senior Reporter
Updated Fri, September 5, 2025 at 1:45 AM CDT 6 min read
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Stephen Miran pledged to lawmakers Thursday that he will act independently if he were confirmed as a new governor on the Federal Reserve Board, but he won’t step down from his current White House post.
He said that he was counseled to take a leave of absence as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers if confirmed to serve on the central bank and then return to the White House after his term is up.
“I have received advice from counsel that what is required is an unpaid leave of absence from the Council of Economic Advisers,” Miran said. He would take the post recently abandoned by Adriana Kugler that expires on Jan. 31.
“Considering the term for which I’m being nominated is a little bit more than four months, that is what I would be taking. As long as that is the advice of counsel, I’ll follow the law.”
Some lawmakers expressed skepticism that Miran would be able to act independently while maintaining his White House post.
Stephen Miran, currently the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, is sworn in prior to testifying before the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. (Win McNamee/Getty Images) · Win McNamee via Getty Images
“You’re going to be technically an employee of the president of the United States, an independent member of the board of the Federal Reserve. That’s ridiculous,” Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said.
Miran said that if he were nominated for a term longer than four months, he would resign from the Council of Economic Advisers.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) asked if the president would have him continue to serve as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers if Miran didn’t vote the way the president wanted.
“I do not know the inside of anyone else’s mind,” Miran said. “What I can tell you is that if I am confirmed in the Federal Reserve, I will act independently based on my own independent analysis of the economy and climate policy.”
In an essay last March for the Manhattan Institute, Miran called for reforms to recalibrate the Fed’s governance to ensure it “remains insulated from day-to-day politics while enhancing its accountability and democratic legitimacy.”
Specifically, he called for increasing the president’s oversight of the Fed, shortening governors’ current 14-year terms, and imposing bans on what he called the revolving door between the executive branch and the Fed. He proposed that Fed members should be prohibited from serving in the executive branch for four years following the end of their term.
Miran also called for nationalizing the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks and giving the governors of the states in their districts the power to select each regional Fed’s board of directors, which in turn would select the president of the regional Fed bank.
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Commentary: Trump says a depression is coming. Here’s the real risk.
Rick Newman · Senior Columnist
Updated Wed, September 3, 2025 at 3:40 AM CDT 5 min read
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If you believe President Trump, the US economy is on the verge of collapse. That’s because a federal appeals court invalidated most of Trump’s import tariffs on Aug. 29, an outcome Trump said would be disastrous.
“There is no substitute for the tariffs and deals that President Trump has made,” the Trump administration said in an Aug. 11 filing with the appeals court. “If the United States were forced to unwind these historic agreements, the president believes that a forced dissolution to these agreements could lead to a 1929-style result. In such a scenario, people would be forced from their homes, millions of jobs would be eliminated [and] hard-working Americans would lose their savings. The economic consequences would be ruinous.”
The court did rescind the tariffs, saying that Trump’s use of a 1977 law to impose tariffs due to a national “emergency” is invalid. The ruling could very well lead to the unwinding of agreements involving hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of import taxes, as Trump warns. Yet stocks remain close to record highs, and economists expect solid job numbers in the next employment report.
Almost nobody is predicting a recession, let alone a 1929-style depression.
Trump obviously uses hyperbole to justify controversial policies such as tariffs and to argue against the courts or anybody else trying to overturn them. That’s why nobody takes his warning of an economic depression seriously. But the legal setback is clearly an adverse outcome for Trump himself, and his vehement defense of the need for tariffs shows that Trump will continue his quest to micromanage trade and other key elements of the economy.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump’s tariffs
What President Trump sees coming: A Salvation Army soup kitchen in 1934. (Staff/Mirrorpix/Getty Images) · Mirrorpix via Getty Images
For one thing, Trump is far from beaten. The appeals court invalidated most of the tariffs Trump has imposed this year, accounting for nearly 80% of the new tariff revenue flowing to the government. But the court also left them in place until Oct. 14, anticipating that the Supreme Court would take up one final appeal.
Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances
The Supreme Court could do a number of things. It could decline to take the case, letting the appeals ruling stand. It could take the case on a fast-track basis and rule quickly. It could also take the case as a routine part of its docket and leave the tariffs in place until it issues a ruling, which might not be until next summer.
“If the Supreme Court agrees to review the case, this could leave the tariffs in place until as late as June 2026,” Goldman Sachs explained in a Sept. 1 analysis.
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What to watch as Congress returns: An ‘almost certain’ shutdown and new energy for a stock trading ban
Ben Werschkul · Washington Correspondent
Updated Wed, September 3, 2025 at 3:42 AM CDT 5 min read
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Lawmakers are returning to Washington this week with a large to-do list and a few issues in key focus for investors — from yet another shutdown fight to new energy for, at the least, a debate on banning lawmakers from trading stocks.
The shutdown is clearly top of mind. Recent developments — notably a Trump move to unilaterally cancel some congressionally approved spending — have further increased partisan tensions ahead of an Oct. 1 deadline when a shutdown will commence.
Unless, that is, Democrats and Republicans work together.
Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy said Monday morning in a live appearance on Yahoo Finance that a shutdown “is almost certain,” largely because of Trump’s provocations as well as the fact that “Democrats feel politically that they have to make some huge political show of Trump resistance.”
Meanwhile, lawmaker stock trading is also set to be at least an agenda item, as even leaders like Speaker Mike Johnson are open to considering the issue.
Will he help put a lid on stock trades? Speaker Mike Johnson speaks to reporters at the U.S. Capitol in July. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) · Andrew Harnik via Getty Images
These twin issues are just part of a huge agenda after an extended late-summer recess.
The full list of hot-button issues includes the Jeffrey Epstein files, a response to Trump’s use of federal troops in Washington, D.C., and possible Senate rules changes.
And markets will also be closely watching Thursday as confirmation hearings for Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve, Stephen Miran, get underway.
Republicans are looking to fast-track his confirmation ahead of a Sept. 16-17 central bank meeting.
Trump may not care ‘about avoiding a shutdown’
Perhaps the top agenda item for Congress as a whole is a government shutdown that will commence on Oct. 1 without action.
Senate rules require at least some Democratic support to advance legislation to extend government funding, and at least some Democrats say there’s no deal they can support.
Senate rules require at least 60 votes (which means seven Democrats in support if all Republicans vote in favor) to end a filibuster and advance any potential bill to a final vote.
The standoff comes after President Trump last week used a maneuver called a “pocket rescission” to unilaterally cut about $5 billion in congressionally approved funding in the area of foreign aid. Even some Republicans have slammed the move. The argument from many Democrats: Why cooperate on anything if Trump can just later nullify any spending agreements on his own?
In addition, as the American Action Forum’s Douglas Holtz-Eakin pointed out Tuesday morning, “The key to a deal usually is to have the White House brokering that deal, and it doesn’t appear, to my eye, that the White House cares a lot about avoiding a shutdown.”
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Why AI data centers — and 3 other areas — could be next as Trump aims to replicate his stake in Intel
Ben Werschkul · Washington Correspondent
Updated Mon, September 1, 2025 at 12:39 PM CDT 5 min read
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This past week began with Donald Trump and his team making clear that they have plans to have the government take a 10% stake in Intel (INTC), the first of “many more cases.”
Officials then offered hints in the days that followed as to what sectors might be next.
Comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, among others, have seen trial balloons launched in areas from shipbuilding to defense contractors to the final form of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
And an outside observer — Darrell West of the Center for Technology Innovation at the Brookings Institution — offered a fourth possibility in a recent interview, suggesting that AI data centers could be an even more high-profile area that might be ripe for Trump’s emerging brand of government interventionism.
“Data centers are at risk because they need a tremendous amount of energy and they have to go through a permitting process that gives the government great leverage over them,” West said. “These companies are going to need government assistance to really operationalize these plans.”
What’s next on the deal block? U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a cabinet meeting at the White House on August 26. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) · Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images
Of course, how far Trump eventually tries to go remains to be seen. The president and his team have offered unbridled enthusiasm, promising deals “all day long.” Notably less enthusiasm has come from many in the business world and many Republicans.
The moves have even led to cries of socialism from some free-market conservatives who are allied with Trump in other areas but have grown increasingly vocal about the president’s broader willingness to interfere in corporate decision making.
Multiple other points of leverage
But a bottom line appears to be that — if Trump wants to go further — he could have plenty of roads to choose from.
“The types of sectors ripe for equity investments are those that are ripe for industrial policy more broadly: products or activities that the rest of the economy relies on,” said Todd Tucker, the director of industrial policy and trade at the Roosevelt Institute.
Tucker acknowledged widespread worries that government investment will lead to distortion in markets. But he argues it is essentially a matter of degree, and years of increasing government involvement in the private sector means “the distortion on some level is already happening.”
Another key element — which even Trump has acknowledged — is the need for the government to have leverage.
This was clearly the case with Intel. The chipmaker came to the table as a struggling company already reliant on government largesse in a sector key to national security.
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Trump’s trade war just got more chaotic than ever
Rick Newman · Senior Columnist
Updated Mon, September 1, 2025 at 1:14 AM CDT 4 min read
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Businesses have been hoping for clarity as President Trump’s trade war enters its eighth month. Instead, they’re getting more confusion and prolonged uncertainty as legal challenges upend a fundamental premise of the whole scheme.
A federal appeals court ruled on Friday that most of the tariffs Trump has imposed so far are illegal. Many trade experts expected that outcome, yet it still leaves importers facing a chaotic situation likely to weigh on the economy for the rest of the year and possibly well into 2026.
The appeals court ruled that Trump’s use of a 1977 law to impose tariffs on an emergency basis is invalid. That affirmed a May 28 ruling by a lower court. The case will probably now go to the Supreme Court, with the outcome and timing of a decision uncertain.
In dozens of instances this year, Trump has claimed he has the authority to impose tariffs as president because a “national emergency” exists. He repeatedly cites the 1977 law, known as IEEPA, that Congress passed to provide firm guidelines on a president’s emergency powers. The national emergency he typically cites is a deficit in goods with a trading partner.
President Trump on “Liberation Day.” · Reuters / Reuters
But IEEPA doesn’t even mention tariffs, or say anything about a president’s power to impose taxes, which is normally up to Congress. The appeals court cited that in striking down the tariffs, while also pointing out that trade deficits that have existed for years aren’t exactly an emergency.
Trump has used the emergency justification to impose import taxes at a far faster pace than he did during his first term. Emergency tariffs account for 78% of the new tariff revenue importers are paying, according to the Tax Foundation. So if the Supreme Court strikes them down for good, Trump will basically have to start over as he tries to rewire the global trading system.
As a rule of thumb, the emergency tariffs are the “reciprocal” tariffs Trump has levied on imported goods from virtually every nation. Those range from 10% to 50%, with the biggest change being in an increase of more than 30 percentage points in the tax on goods from China, the second-largest source of American imports. The table below lists the current import tax for each trading partner.
Trump has been negotiating trade deals nation by nation, to lock in those tariff rates and secure better terms for American firms exporting to those countries. Those deals would essentially be moot if the Supreme Court invalidates the emergency tariffs. Trump would also lose the ability to use tariffs as leverage for other purposes.
He recently slapped a 50% tariff on imports from India, to try to force the south Asian nation against buying Russian oil. Trump also put a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, partly as pressure to end the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Without emergency tariffs, Trump would lose those levers.
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This week in Trumponomics: The Cracker Barrel follies
Rick Newman · Senior Columnist
Updated Sat, August 30, 2025 at 8:26 AM CDT 5 min read
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It’s a safe bet President Trump has never dined at a Cracker Barrel (CBRL). But like millions of Americans, he has strong opinions about the kitschy roadside chain.
During a week in which he made a power grab at the Federal Reserve and defenestrated the nation’s top public health official, Trump somehow found time to weigh in on a rebranding effort at America’s 31st largest restaurant company.
As part of a turnaround plan, Tennessee-based Cracker Barrel unveiled a new logo on Aug. 19 that airbrushed out an old dude in overalls leaning against a barrel. The new logo had no image, just the company name against an orange backdrop vaguely familiar to any motorist who has ever perused the skyline near an interstate exit.
Something nefarious was obviously afoot. Anti-woke vigilantes attacked the company on social media, with Donald Trump Jr. posting, “WTF is wrong with Cracker Barrel?!” Trump Sr. finally weighed in, with a post saying, “Cracker Barrel should go back to the old logo [and] admit a mistake.”
That presidential suggestion sent the stock down 8%, and the company must have known its barrel was about to become the next bit of fuel tossed on the culture war bonfire. So it backed down. “We thank our guests for sharing their voices,” the company squished in an Aug. 26 statement that got 254,000 likes on X. “Our new logo is going away and our ‘Old Timer’ will remain.”
Is this about anything? Why does anybody care about the hokey logo of a mediocre food chain? Are Americans really this bored?
The White House took credit for the restoration of the original logo, as if it had salvaged a national treasure. In Trump’s view, maybe it is. The company got its start in the South in 1969 as a gimmicky way to sell gasoline. The front porches and cluttered gift shops are meant to evoke a country homestead. The company went public in 1981 and has been a corporate operation ever since. Monetizing kitsch seems like something Trump can relate to.
Grandpa’s gone. The old guy in the overalls disappeared from Cracker Barrel’s experimental logo. (AP Photo/Wyatte Grantham-Philips) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
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But there’s no sign Trump’s intervention will right the company’s fortunes. Cracker Barrel has been losing business for years, with diners questioning the chain’s “relevance,” according to 2024 remarks by the CEO. The same sense of nostalgia some patrons are now praising seems like musty, outdated shtick to others. Cracker Barrel’s profit margin dropped from 7.3% in 2019 to 1.2% in 2024, according to Capital IQ. The stock recovered from the logo slip this week, but it’s down a ghastly 67% from its peak in 2018.
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Judge delays decision on Trump’s move to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. Here’s what’s next.
